March 2026 · 7 min read
CER Projects Up to 520,000 Home Batteries and 12 GWh of Storage in 2026
Official CER Projections for 2026
The Clean Energy Regulator projects 350,000 to 520,000 home battery installations delivering 8 to 12 GWh of storage capacity in 2026. Rooftop solar is forecast at 3-3.7 GW of new capacity. These figures confirm 2026 will be the biggest year ever for Australian residential energy storage.
The CER's Landmark 2026 Projections
The Clean Energy Regulator (CER) has released its most ambitious projections for residential energy storage: 350,000 to 520,000 home battery installations in 2026, delivering between 8 and 12 GWh of new storage capacity. At the upper end, this would represent more than double the capacity installed in 2025.
To put the 12 GWh figure in perspective: that single year of residential battery installations would exceed the combined storage capacity of the 12 largest in-service large-scale batteries in the National Electricity Market (NEM). Australia's household battery fleet is becoming a genuinely significant energy infrastructure asset.
2026 CER Projections at a Glance
2025 Set the Stage: What the Cheaper Home Batteries Scheme Delivered
The CER's optimism is grounded in the remarkable results from 2025. The federal Cheaper Home Batteries Scheme (CHBS), launched on 1 July 2025, delivered 193,000+ valid battery installations in its first six months — representing 4.6 GWh of storage capacity.
On the solar side, 2025 saw 2.8 GW of new rooftop solar from approximately 270,000 systems. For 2026, the CER projects this will grow to 3 to 3.7 GW, driven in part by homeowners upgrading older systems alongside new battery installations.
2025 Performance: The Foundation for 2026
Large-Scale Solar: Record Approvals Signal Long-Term Shift
The CER data also revealed that 2025 was the largest year on record for large-scale solar approvals, with 4 GW of total renewable capacity approved — including 3 GW of solar and 1 GW of wind. This smashes the previous record of 2.5 GW set in 2018.
Large-scale Generation Certificates (LGCs) also exceeded expectations, with 59.7 million LGCs created in 2025 against a forecast of 54-57 million. For 2026, the CER projects 64-66 million LGCs, with oversupply likely to persist through to the conclusion of the Renewable Energy Target in 2030.
What This Means for Australian Homeowners
The CER projections confirm what the market data has been suggesting: 2026 is the year of the home battery. The Cheaper Home Batteries Scheme is the primary driver, delivering substantial upfront discounts that make battery storage financially attractive for most solar households.
However, the program's generosity is not permanent. The STC factor drops from 8.4 to 6.8 on 1 May 2026, and will then decline every six months. Homeowners who install earlier in 2026 will receive significantly more rebate value than those who wait.
The rooftop solar projection of 3-3.7 GW also suggests growing demand for combined solar-plus-battery installations — particularly from homeowners upgrading older solar systems that were installed before batteries were widely available.
Key Implications for Homeowners
- 1The Cheaper Home Batteries Scheme is the primary driver — delivering roughly 30% upfront discounts on battery systems.
- 2Early movers in 2026 benefit most. The STC factor drops on 1 May and continues declining every six months thereafter.
- 3Rooftop solar upgrades are accelerating — older systems can be paired with new batteries for maximum savings.
- 4Installer demand will surge as the year progresses. Booking early avoids delays and secures the highest rebate.
- 5At 12 GWh, Australia's residential battery fleet becomes a significant grid asset — potentially enabling VPP earnings for participating households.
How Super Solar Energy Can Help You Be Part of the 520,000
With up to half a million batteries projected for 2026, installer capacity will be tested like never before. Super Solar Energy is scaling to meet demand — and helping homeowners move quickly to capture the maximum rebate.
Beat the Queue with Priority Scheduling
As CER projections show, demand is surging. We're offering priority installation scheduling for homeowners who book consultations now — helping you avoid the end-of-deadline rush.
Solar + Battery System Design
Whether you're adding a battery to an existing solar system or installing both together, we design integrated systems that maximise self-consumption and minimise grid dependence.
Full CHBS Rebate Processing
We manage the entire Cheaper Home Batteries Scheme application, STC paperwork, and any applicable state incentives — ensuring you receive every dollar of available rebate.
Future-Ready Systems
With VPP participation growing and grid services becoming a revenue source, we install systems that are VPP-compatible from day one — positioning your battery as both a savings tool and an earning asset.
CEC-Accredited Quality and Safety
Every Cosmic installation is performed by CEC-accredited professionals using approved brands including Tesla, FoxESS, GoodWe, and BYD — backed by manufacturer warranties of up to 15 years.
The Bottom Line
The Clean Energy Regulator's projections make one thing clear: 2026 is set to be the biggest year ever for home batteries in Australia. With up to 520,000 installations and 12 GWh of storage on the horizon, the residential energy storage revolution is no longer a forecast — it's happening now.
But with rebates declining from May 1 and installer demand surging, the homeowners who benefit most will be those who act early in 2026.
Super Solar Energy is ready to help you secure your place in Australia's battery revolution — with expert guidance, premium products, and full rebate support from consultation to installation.
Sources & Further Reading
- PV Magazine Australia — CER projects up to 12 GWh capacity from 520,000 home batteries in 2026 (February 2026)
- Clean Energy Regulator — 2026 capacity and installation projections
- Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) — Cheaper Home Batteries Scheme
- AEMO — National Electricity Market large-scale battery capacity data
